The monthly rainfall across the country is likely to be 96% of its long-term average during July, and 99% of the average during August, both with a model error of 9%, the IMD said in a statement.
Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98 percent of the LPA with a model error of ±4 percent.
The met agency also released the forecast for four regions, out of which central India is likely to receive 100% of its average rainfall and southern peninsula will get 99% rainfall. North-west and north-east India are expected to receive 96% of the normal rains.
We have ruled out the possibility of any strong El Nino developing during the later half of the monsoon, Ramesh said, adding "in view of the positive development we have upgraded the monsoon forecast from 96% to 98%". Good monsoon over the next 3-4 months will also ensure soil moisture that will help the Rabi crop.
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The seasonal average monsoon rainfall for the June to September period, based on 1951-2000 data, is 890mm.
According to meteorological parlance, anything between 96-104 is considered as "normal" rainfall and below it is "deficient".
The southwest monsoon hit Kerala on May 30, two days ahead of scheduled onset date of June 1. "The monsoon likely to reach Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal by June 13-14", said IMD director general K J Ramesh. However, outlook from other global climate centers also indicates about 60% probability of development of weak El Niño conditions during the second half of this year (2017).
However, the experimental forecast based on one of the models - Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)- suggests that the monsoon rainfall during 2017 would average 100 per cent over the country as a whole and was likely to be with an error estimation of plus-minus five per cent.