Global carbon emissions to rise 2% in 2017: scientists

Carbon emissions back on the rise

Driven By China, Global Carbon Emissions Rise in 2017

From 2014 to 2016 global Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry grew hardly at all. According, Chinese emissions are projected to rise by 3.5% in 2016 as compared to past year with its GDP up by 6.8%.

These are continuing to rise as a outcome of warming driven by ever higher greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, in response to the profligate global consumption of fossil fuels.

Pep Canadell, a geoscientist at Australia's CSIRO and head of the Global Carbon Project that produces the carbon budget report each year, says that the findings are disappointing. Such report will play an important role when countries take "Global Stocktake" under the Paris Agreement every five years.

Demonstrators dressed as Donald Trump and as a polar bear are seen during a demonstration in Bonn against the COP 23 UN Climate Change Conference hosted by Fiji but held in Bonn, Germany November 11, 2017. This is mainly because of increased emissions from China, which is witnessing a spurt in industrial growth, a multinational team of researchers said on Monday.

The projected 2% increase in carbon dioxide emissions comes from growth in China's smokestack industries and jeopardises the Paris climate agreement goals, say experts.

He attributed the global increase largely to growth in Chinese emissions.

Persistent uncertainties exist in scientists' ability to estimate recent changes in emissions, particularly when there are unexpected changes as in the last few years. It is again a key driver in 2017.

"China generates almost 30% of global carbon dioxide emissions, and the ups and downs of the Chinese economy leave a signature on global emissions growth", said Jan Ivar Korsbakken, senior researcher at Cicero and co-author.

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Land-use change emissions in 2017, on other hand, would be very similar to that in 2016, the scientists wrote in Nature Climate Change journal.

USA emissions are projected to decline by 0.4% this year, more slowly than the decline of 1.2% per year averaged over the last decade because of a return to growth in coal use.

Indian emissions are projected to grow 2% (+0.2% to +3.8%) in 2017, compared to 6% per year averaged over the previous decade, due to significant government interventions in the economy (GDP up 6.7%). The report found that declines in the US and Europe were smaller than previous years.

Global emissions held steady at 36.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year from 2014 to 2016, but they are on track to hit a new record high of 36.8 gigatonnes in 2017.

Yang Fuqiang, senior adviser for the NRDC China Program, said the eventual carbon emissions of 2017 could be lower than forecast, as authorities have put on a large-scale production curb on industries such as steel and cement to combat air pollution during winter months.

Commenting on the sad state of global climate and hoping for a better future, Le Quere said, "This year we have seen how climate change can amplify the impacts of hurricanes with more intense rainfall, higher sea levels and warmer ocean conditions favouring more powerful storms".

Even though researchers may start to detect a change in emission trends early, it may take as much as 10 years to confidently and independently verify a sustained change in emissions using measurements of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide.

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