The forecast based on the MMCFS suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2018 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 99% ± 5% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Monsoon is regarded as "normal" if the average rainfall can be between 96-104 percent of the LPA.
The department forecast a low probability for deficit rainfall this monsoon. "Monsoon 2018 is likely to remain normal at 97 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) for the four-month period from June to September", Ramesh told a press conference.
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There was a probability of 42 per cent for a normal rainfall, followed by 12 per cent for above normal, 30 per cent for below normal, two percent for excess and 14 per cent for deficient rainfall.
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IMD issues various monthly and seasonal forecasts of rainfall for the southwest monsoon season.
Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has said rainfall in 2018 will be normal at 100 per cent of the LPA.
However, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions.
Ramesh said about the nation that the country does not face lacking rainfall throughout monsoon season on this 2019.
The 2017 southwest monsoon season saw below-normal rainfall at 95 percent of the LPA, against the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of normal rainfall at 98 percent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 percent. Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts. Although rains would witness a drop in July and August that will not much affect the farmers.